Israel might have just committed the single most self-defeating act of this disastrous war so far. Yesterday, it took out Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, by bombing a crowded apartment building near Tehran. The explosion destroyed an entire neighbourhood in the Pardis area, as shown in the below footage.
Larijani was Iran’s de facto leader following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was visiting his sister when, in typical Israeli style, the strike took out not just his family, but their neighbours too. This was an act of terrorism. It’s important to understand Larijani wasn’t some hard-line ideologue—he was seen as one of the most pragmatic, experienced figures in Tehran.
Veteran BBC correspondent John Simpson, who met Larijani multiple times, described him as “clever and reasonable—the kind of person you might want to negotiate a peace deal with.” Simpson is far from some antiwar activist, yet he is now getting accused of whitewashing for his words. You can spend your entire career backing the establishment, but the moment you let the truth slip out, they will come for you. It’s a control mechanism.
Simpson was hardly expressing a fringe view because I’ve seen similar figures in the US making the same point. Larijani was respected domestically and seen by Western observers as a potential bridge-builder. For a period, he was even touted as a potential transitional leader due to his experience in nuclear negotiations.
Larijani was possibly the last offramp and now he is gone. His elimination sends a clear message: Israel has zero interest in diplomacy. That stance might have some logic if Israel was winning, but the evidence suggests the opposite. Damage from Iranian attacks has far exceeded expectations and it’s only likely to get worse, but if Israel stops now, the balance of power shifts to Iran. Israel’s continuation is desperation.
Iran has launched “Larijani’s Revenge” on central Israel with multi-warhead missiles successfully evading defences, causing extensive damage to buildings and a Tel Aviv train station, leaving at least two dead. Iran claims over 100 military targets were struck by its Khorramshahr-4, Emad, Khybershakan, and Qadr missiles. Reports suggest military installations and refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion were struck, but Israel is imposing a media blackout.
Far from fracturing Iranian unity, the war has predictably rallied the public, same as last year’s 12-day war. If any country is fracturing it is Israel where public anger appears to be boiling over. Citizens are increasingly furious at officials for downplaying the scale of destruction, the civilian suffering, and the lack of a clear plan.
Spending night after night in bomb shelters, denied sleep by constant explosions, not knowing if you will have a home in the morning, takes a psychological toll. While the Israeli government insists operations are “under control”, people on the ground see the truth. There is a widening gap between propaganda and reality.
In Washington, the mood is equally grim with officials reportedly conceding the US could be losing this war. Publicly, Trump boasts of “decisive victory” and dismisses the concerns, but he is floundering. He even said he doesn’t think Israel will nuke Tehran—an odd statement that acknowledges Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal. Ominously, Trump often means the opposite of what he says, and given the desperate nature of the situation, anything could happen.
The USS Gerald R. Ford saga is a perfect example of the unfolding disaster. The Navy insists a fire started in the main laundry room that raged for over 30 hours, displaced more than 600 sailors, forced them to sleep on floors and tables, and required the carrier to divert to Crete for repairs. The Ford officially remains fully operational, yet Iran is taking credit for the retreat (it is also claiming to have struck the USS Abraham Lincoln).
While the laundry fire story seems laughable, self-sabotage is hardly out of the question, given the ship’s chaotic 11-month deployment which has seen overflowing toilets, daily sewage acid flushes (costing $400,000 each), and low morale with sailors publicly expressing their desire to quit.
Whatever the truth, the withdrawal of a US aircraft carrier (possibly two) hands Iran a massive propaganda victory. This is hardly the only Iranian victory either: the US has lost at least 11 Reaper drones in 17 days, each at a cost of $30-35 million, and it has also seen significant damage to six KC-135 refueling tankers with another destroyed.
The US’s aura of invincibility is gone and its regional allies are feeling abandoned. Not only is the US failing to protect them, but it’s refusing to sell them air and drone defences. Either it doesn’t trust them or doesn’t see them as a priority. Either way, Gulf states are likely reassessing a relationship that has only made them a target.
Even “victory” for the US would be devastating to regional stability. A massive failed state with heavily-armed factions and no central leadership would be ruinous for tourism and oil trade. Imagine dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah times one thousand, over a vastly larger area. There is no option in which Iran becomes a cosy “liberal democracy” that is embraced by the West, despite the fantasies of Reza Pahlavi.
South Asian economies are feeling the strain of energy shortages with shortened work weeks, business closures, and partial school shutdowns. The war plays into China’s hands as demand for its solar panels and electric vehicles increases. While the US destroys its global reputation, China will increasingly be seen as a reliable partner.
The US is diverting all of its energy towards saving Israel, only problem is it doesn’t know how. It has already taken out almost every visible target in Iran (mostly empty buildings and decoys), but it is struggling to destroy the only targets that matter: the missile launchers and drones.
Vast mountain ranges and tunnel networks that dwarf those of Gaza make it incredibly easy to hide important equipment (taking out a building doesn’t mean you take out contents that can be moved). Iran has an endless supply of missiles and can churn out drones for the same price Israel pays influencers for social media posts. Meanwhile, US-made interceptors cost up to 200 times more.
The aggressors are struggling to find viable targets so they are instead going on a killing rampage in the hope of breaking the public will, failing to understand this will only have the opposite effect. It’s not just Iran getting this treatment either. Israel is currently levelling apartment buildings in Lebanon. It has forced residents out of southern Lebanon and says they will not be allowed back to their homes. It uses every war as an excuse to steal more land and this one is no different.
Over the weekend, the hapless Trump was begging Europe for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, only to be given a resounding no. While some assume European leaders are making a stand, their refusal isn’t moral posturing, it’s self-preservation. Iran has laid a deadly trap with thousands of sea mines and drones ready to devastate any ship foolish enough to approach.
The US and Israel do not want to send their own vessels to face death and destruction so they demanded Europeans sacrifice theirs instead. They demanded someone else fight their war to solve a problem they needlessly caused. The sad thing is if the Europeans thought this goal was achievable, they would go for it.
As the global economy reels from a problem of Trump’s making, the US president is more focused on stamping out dissent at home. The man who claims to be bringing democracy to Iran is threatening treason charges against journalists for pointing out his failures. It’s worth bearing in mind, treason carries the death penalty in the US.
Trump baselessly accused mainstream outlets of sharing AI-generated propaganda, posting on Truth Social: “You can say that those Media Outlets that generated it should be brought up on Charges for TREASON for the dissemination of false information!” This doesn’t seem like bluster either.
Tucker Carlson is facing smears and a bogus CIA investigation for daring to criticise the war effort. And just yesterday, Joe Kent (Trump’s National Counterterrorism Center director) came under fire when he resigned in protest, stating: “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.” Kent now faces accusations of antisemitism and extremism.
Jonathan Greenblatt of the ADL has suggested that anyone who blames Israel for dragging the US into war is guilty of antisemitism, which is interesting given both Trump and Rubio have said words to that effect. The head of one of the most influential antiracism organisations appears to be calling everyone who accepts the president’s admission “antisemitic”. This only undermines the fight against actual antisemitism.
Adding to the farce, Israel has been releasing “proof of life” videos and images of Netanyahu that appear to be outdated or AI-generated. I’m not sure what to make of this: while the obvious assumption would be that Netanyahu is dead or injured, I wouldn’t rule out it being a bizarre psy-op. Whatever the truth, the whole thing is clearly shambolic and leading nowhere good.
Prior to the war, Iran was reportedly open to major concessions—a fact acknowledged by UK officials who said a deal appeared to be within reach. That door was slammed shut with Larijani’s death. From Iran’s perspective, it can’t possibly negotiate with a side that kills negotiators who are acting in good faith and has said it will keep targeting Iranian leadership. A ceasefire would simply give the aggressors the chance to reload and fire again.
Trump can’t end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz because that would mean leaving things in a worse position than when he started. It would be an admission that war was a catastrophic strategic error that only resulted in the destruction of military bases and loss of control in the region.
Not only is there no end in sight, but the risks of escalation are apocalyptic: Iran could target Gulf desalination plants, leaving over 100 million without drinking water and triggering history’s largest refugee crisis, or it could obliterate oil facilities, leading to economic catastrophe, or it could do both. It’s no exaggeration to say Iran is capable of rendering the entire region uninhabitable, even without nukes.
At this point, nothing is gained from continuing the war, other than avoiding the admission of defeat. Trump and Netanyahu are blowing up the region to save themselves politically, screwing their Gulf allies in the process. It is widely understood that regime change is unlikely to happen and the Iranians have gained the upper-hand.
The only question now is will the Epstein axis claim false victory and back away, or will they finish the Gulf region for good?
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Good analysis, thanks for all the work you are putting in to help us make some sense of what is happening in the face of the blizzard of lies, contradictions and misinformation coming from Trump.
When i keep saying that the Devil IsRael, the Antichrist, i actually mean it...