If pollsters Survation are to be believed, Sir Keith Starmer, FBPE's knight in shining armour, could be set to lose Hartlepool for Labour for the first time in the seat's history in the coming by-election. Labour has won Hartlepool at every general election since the seat was created in 1974, yet two recent polls by Survation are suggesting grim news for Sir Keith. The first poll, earlier this month, had the Tories taking Hartlepool by 7%, and the most recent poll has the Tories taking the seat by a whopping 17%.
Now, to be fair, the polls had small sample sizes (502 and 517 respectively) and are obviously not fully reliable, but these are hardly positive signs. Especially when you consider the most recent poll showed Starmer's approval rating at just 22%, compared to Boris Johnson's 51%.
The Tories are in disarray, being up to their eyeballs in corruption, and the prime minister could plausibly be forced to resign soon. Labour should be battering them in the polls and yet the reverse is true. It's difficult to see how things could be worse for them, right now.
If Labour loses Hartlepool, that's one of its safest seats gone. How does the party come back from that?
Even a narrow victory for Labour would be a poor showing, never mind a crushing defeat. The Brexit Party is out the way, Brexit is no longer an issue, and the Tories are getting every major decision wrong. The conditions are perfect for a Labour resurgence, yet the polling suggests this resurgence is nowhere in sight.
I suspect this is actually part of the reason the mainstream media has suddenly turned against PM Boris Johnson. It's not that they want the Tories out, it's just they want centrist Labour (their B team) to be close enough to the Tories, there is no way back for the Labour left. But even their best propaganda efforts are failing to convince enough voters to stick with Labour. Younger voters are abandoning the party in droves and older voters are simply not coming in to replace them.
Keith basically cut off his left leg in the hope his right leg would grow back, and all he did was leave himself without a leg to stand on.
The recent polling has come as quite a shock to the FBPE crowd because in their minds Sir Keith Starmer has clearly done everything right! He's purged Labour of those toxic lefty activists who did all of Labour's campaigning, he's treated every Brexiter like they're too thick to know what's good for them, and he's shagged a flag every time a camera was close by. He's even worn Brylcreem and his favourite Hugo Boss suit, but those pesky northerners want a bit more than that. They want representation.
Obviously, this is all Jeremy Corbyn's fault - he set Starmer up for failure by winning the Hartlepool seat twice.
Amazingly, ex-Labour MP Thelma Walker is currently polling at 6% as an independent candidate! Her party - the Northern Independence Party - aren't officially registered yet and she's still taking 6% off Labour guy Saudi Paul, which would be enough to keep her deposit. In our outdated FPTP system that is a minor miracle. Just imagine the damage Walker can do when the NIP is in full swing...
It looks like the electorate don't want "grownup politics" after all. Strange, because I always thought us northerners wanted just three things in life: football, beer, and patronising metropolitan lawyers ventriloquising us in Westminster. But apparently not...
Fear not though, the Starmerrhoids already have their attack line planned. Keith has explained that no one seriously thought Labour could rebuild in one year after suffering their worst election defeat since 1935. Only the centrists did think that actually - they told us repeatedly they'd be 20 points ahead! And the last defeat wasn't the worst since 1935 - Corbyn won more votes in 2019 than Miliband in 2015 and Brown in 2010. It's only because of Britain's weird electoral system and the divisive People's Vote policy that he picked up fewer seats.
PV was Starmer's brilliant plan to capture the Labour Party, but he didn't stop to think he was burning the house down while he was still inside and those toxic lefties are actually the fire brigade he needs to rescue him. Oops.
Keith fans have a great cover for his coming failure though - their story is as follows: Labour only won Hartlepool in 2019 because the Brexit Party took votes from the Conservatives!
Please don't mention this claim is provably false because the Brexit Party actually took significantly more votes from Labour than from the Tories, and Corbyn still won the seat. Also, don't mention that by going with this line, they are actually suggesting the people of Hartlepool never wanted the People's Vote (this being the policy they said would win the 2019 GE). And finally, don't mention that according to their own logic, those voters should be rushing back to Labour in droves, but instead they're going to the Tories, NIP, and anywhere but Labour.
There seems to be a complete disconnect with wor Keith who is currently in the process of suicide by focus group. He fails to realise the reason Hartlepudlians voted for Brexit is the same reason they're rejecting Labour now: they are fed up with the establishment and desperate for change.
There is a reason Labour came so close to government in 2017 and won Hartlepool by a landslide - Corbyn offered a meaningful alternative which Evans and Starmer have ensured can never happen again by dismantling Labour's internal party democracy.
In perhaps the most tone deaf move ever, Keith is screaming from the rooftops that he's the pro-establishment guy, then he's parachuting in Saudi Paul without a democratic selection process and expecting the people of Hartlepool to accept whatever shit he dumps on their doorstep because they have nowhere else to go. Talk about taking your voter base for granted!
There are huge issues facing the north, with limited infrastructure, appalling public transport, and shocking lack of investment. Yet Keith is telling Hartlepudlians a status quo which filters all their money to the southeast is somehow best for them - they're just too thick to understand. But look, Keith can wear boxing gloves for the cameras and throw the kind of punch which suggests he's never had to deal with the rough and tumble of working class life!
Keith fans love to boast about his working class credentials, but he's never actually lived in the real world. His father was not a "tool maker," he was the owner of the tool factory. The boss. The capitalist. And his interests were totally incompatible with the interests of the working class. Clearly, Keith has carried his father's life experience into his politics. He is the kind of man workers need to be unionising against so it's absurd to expect unions and the working class to get behind him.
Keith is not an ally, he is an enemy.
Starmer's Labour very deliberately left working class northerners with nowhere to go, failing to consider they were creating fertile ground for new parties to emerge. It's no surprise to me at all that the Northern Independence Party is on the rise. It's addressing the north/south divide which centrism simply has no answer for, because status quo politics by its very nature can't change what needs to be changed. And the people know it.
Even Labour's internal polling predicts defeat in Hartlepool, with only 40% of previous Labour voters saying they will definitely vote Labour this time around - and this from a sample of 10,000 voters. Labour fears it's also at risk of losing Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in 50 years.
Therefore, I'm sticking my neck on the line and predicting Labour will lose Hartlepool, Saudi Paul will fade into obscurity, Starmer will remain in denial until his allies force him out, and Labour will go into catastrophic free fall. Why? Because even if Starmer goes, the neoliberal rot at the heart of the Labour Party will remain and working class voters simply don't want establishment politics.
The "grownup moderates" are making Labour everyone's least favourite option because they stand for absolutely nothing. They've already lost Scotland to the SNP, trust for Labour in the north is at an all-time low, and no amount of flag shagging will ever turn the Tory south red. Labour is losing the youth vote, the BAME vote and the socialist vote. It has no red wall, no safe seats and no one to knock on doors, so where the hell are its votes coming from in 2024?
Labour is on a downward spiral, it's a dying party, and that's why it's time for the left to build something new. Even if Starmer manages to cling onto Hartlepool by the skin of his teeth, he is simply postponing the inevitable. Why waste another second of your energy fighting for a party which has contempt for your views and no future?
If you're a northerner, get behind the Northern Independence Party. If you're a southerner, take a look at the Breakthrough Party. And let's start winning over all those disenchanted voters who've been abandoned by Westminster. It's time for change and May's local and by-election results could be the awakening Britain so desperately needs.
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